njleach

physics | climate | python

How is climate change affecting our weather?

I recently gave a talk about attribution of extreme weather events as part of the Oxford@home COP Conversations series. In it, I try to briefly cover the current state of the science, as well as going into some detail about my own PhD research into the use of weather forecast models for attribution.

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mystatsfunctions

In this post I use a jupyter notebook to demo the package I have created for easily carrying out regression analyses and fitting distributions via L-Moments.

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The FaIR DECK

A figure showing the idealised CMIP6 DECK reference experiments carried out using the constrained FaIR probabilistic ensemble.

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Historical contributions to warming: what, who, where?

Reasonably recently, I noticed a tweet (it’s always twitter…) asking for an estimate of the contribution of agriculture to global warming. There were a few responses, but they had quite a wide spread and in general seemed inconclusive. I decided, quite some time after seeing the tweet, to see if I could give my own estimate of this using the probabilistic simple climate model ensemble I used in my previous post. As is the way with these “straightforward” projects, it naturally turned into something a bit more comprehensive than intended. This post is the result - my attempt to estimate what (specific forcing drivers), who (sectors) and where (countries) is causing anthropogenic global warming.

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Climate modelling in Excel...

You can download the implementation of the FaIRv2.0 model in Excel described in this post here.

This is a brief post that introduces an Excel version of the FaIRv2.0 model1 that I’ve created. I go through some of the key features, suggest some experiments that you can do, and provide recipes for how to carry out a few different types of analyses with the model.

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