publications
2023
Thompson, V., Mitchell, D., Hegerl, G. C., Collins, M., Leach, N. J., & Slingo, J. M. (2023). The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves. Nature Communications, 14(1), Article 1.
Mosnier, A., Javalera-Rincon, V., Jones, S. K., Andrew, R., Bai, Z., Baker, J., Basnet, S., Boer, R., Chavarro, J., Costa, W., Daloz, A. S., DeClerck, F. A., Diaz, M., Douzal, C., Fan, A. C. H., Fetzer, I., Frank, F., Gonzalez-Abraham, C. E., Habiburrachman, A. H. F., … Zerriffi, H. (2023). A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems. Environmental Research Letters, 18(4), 045001.
Floess, E., Grieshop, A., Puzzolo, E., Pope, D., Leach, N., Smith, C. J., … & Bailis, R. (2023). Scaling up gas and electric cooking in low-and middle-income countries: climate threat or mitigation strategy with co-benefits?. Environmental Research Letters, 18(3), 034010.
Jones, S. M., Smith, A. C., Leach, N., Henrys, P., Atkinson, P. M., & Harrison, P. A. (2023). Pathways to achieving nature-positive and carbon–neutral land use and food systems in Wales. Regional Environmental Change, 23(1), 37.
Smith, A. C., Harrison, P. A., Leach, N. J., Godfray, H. C. J., Hall, J. W., Jones, S. M., … & Obersteiner, M. (2023). Sustainable pathways towards climate and biodiversity goals in the UK: the importance of managing land-use synergies and trade-offs. Sustainability Science, 18(1), 521-538.
2022
Mosnier, A., Schmidt-Traub, G., Obersteiner, M., Jones, S., Javalera-Rincon, V., DeClerck, F., ... & Wang, X. (2022). How can diverse national food and land-use priorities be reconciled with global sustainability targets? Lessons from the FABLE initiative. Sustainability Science, 1-11..
Leach, N. J., Watson, P. A. G., Sparrow, S. N., Wallom, D. C. H., Sexton, D. M. H. (2022). Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation. Weather and Climate Extremes, 100419.
2021
Leach, N. J., Weisheimer, A., Allen, M. R., & Palmer, T. (2021). Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(49).
Leach, N. J., Jenkins, S., Nicholls, Z., Smith, C. J., Lynch, J., Cain, M., Walsh, T., Wu, B., Tsutsui, J., and Allen, M. R. (2021). FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3007–3036.
Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Corradi, M. R., Dorheim, K., Gasser, T., et al. (2021). Reduced complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth system knowledge for probabilistic climate projections. Earth’s Future, 9, e2020EF001900.
Jan Van Oldenborgh, G., Krikken, F., Lewis, S., Leach, N. J., Lehner, F., Saunders, K. R., … Otto, F. E. L. (2021). Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21(3), 941–960.
2020
Leach, N. J., Li, S., Sparrow, S. N., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Lott, F. C., Weisheimer, A., & Allen, M. R. (2020). ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE ON THE 2018 SUMMER WARM SPELL IN EUROPE: THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT SPATIO-TEMPORAL SCALES [in “Explaining Extremes of 2018 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(1), S41–S46. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0201.1
R. J. Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Gieseke, R., Dommenget, D., Dorheim, K., … Xie, Z. (2020). Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: Introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response. Geoscientific Model Development, 13(11), 5175–5190.
2019
2018
Leach, N. J., Millar, R. J., Haustein, K., Jenkins, S., Graham, E., & Allen, M. R. (2018). Current level and rate of warming determine emissions budgets under ambitious mitigation. Nature Geoscience, 11(8), 574–579. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0156-y
Jenkins, S., Millar, R. J., Leach, N., & Allen, M. R. (2018). Framing Climate Goals in Terms of Cumulative CO2-Forcing-Equivalent Emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2795– 2804. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076173
Smith, C. J., Forster, P. M., Allen, M., Leach, N., Millar, R. J., Passerello, G. A., & Regayre, L. A. (2018). FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model. Geoscientific Model Development, 11(6), 2273–2297. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018