PhDone

It’s all (in a strictly informal capacity apparently until I have actually graduated) over. This links to the final copy of my thesis.

How it started: The link between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and anthropogenic climate change has been established for over a century…

How it ended: …I am excited to see how synthesising climate science and weather prediction can inform society about and prepare society for the risks from climate change in the coming years.

The heatwave that never was

Around a month ago, the UK recorded temperatures of over 40°C for the first time - and over a remarkably large area. A few features of the heatwave struck me at the time: its unprecedented nature; how well-forecast it was; how seriously it was being taken in a decent chunk of the media; and how much of the discussion about it was framed about the unequivocal influence that human greenhouse gas emissions had on it. A couple of weeks prior to the peak of the heat, Simon Lee wrote an excellent blog post that covers a lot of what I’d say about these features, so that comes as recommended (though hopefully not essential) reading. In this post, I’m going to explore the question of: ‘could an event like this have plausibly happened in the past?’ And to do that, I’m taking you back to 2001…

ExSamples - Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation

I recently gave a talk about the work I’ve done in collaboration with several co-authors on the ExSamples project. This talk was part of the UKCRP webinar series. The aim of this project is to provide a proof-of-concept of a specific experiment design that could support existing climate projection efforts by more completely sampling the uncertainty surrounding the most extreme future events.

How is climate change affecting our weather?

I recently gave a talk about attribution of extreme weather events as part of the Oxford@home COP Conversations series. In it, I try to briefly cover the current state of the science, as well as going into some detail about my own PhD research into the use of weather forecast models for attribution.

mystatsfunctions

In this post I use a jupyter notebook to demo the package I have created for easily carrying out regression analyses and fitting distributions via L-Moments.